712 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012
HAVE MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT...INCLUDED
EXPANDED CHANCE POPS INTO SE SECTIONS OF OUR CWA THRU THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR WRN
SECTIONS. HAVE ALSO DECREASE SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING TAKING PLACE DURING THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR NOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH
LINGERING LAKE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GATHER STRENGTH
OVER THE PLAINS...AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012
TONIGHT...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.
LOOKING AT THE VIS AND IR IMAGES, THE MOISTURE POOL STRETCHES AS FAR
SOUTH AS A MTW-LDM LINE, ALLOWING THE LAKE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER C
LAKE MICHIGAN AND THEN OVER NW LOWER AND NC LOWER. UPSTREAM, THE
MOISTURE AND WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE CLOUDS,
HOWEVER, AFTER 00Z, THE WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM SW TO NW OVERNIGHT
AND WE LOSE SOME OF OUR QG FORCING. HOWEVER, AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST, -9 TO -10C 850 MB AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT/EFFECT AS WE PROGRESS OVERNIGHT.
THUS HAVE LIMITED SOME OF THE AREAS THAT WERE CATEGORICAL THIS
AFTERNOON TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MINOR TO LIGHT AS TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD LAYER ARE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN OPTIMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THEN AS THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES, THE DRY AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN INTO THE TOP OF
THE CLOUD LAYER LIMITING THE CLOUD DEPTH, SO THAT THE SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR.
THURSDAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
HELPING TO DEVELOP THE SFC LOW IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT
THEN MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED SO
THAT THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN NORTHERN LOWER AND POINTS NORTH.
AGAIN, THE ECMWF IS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO TREND ITS SFC LOW SOUTH AS WELL AS THE NAM'S POSITION.
WHILE STILL IN OUR AREA, THE CHANGE IN THE MODEL IS TO SINK IT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY, JUST LIKE THE ECMWF. SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012
BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PACIFIC AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
COMING OVER THE TOP OF A FLAT EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL HELP
REINFORCE THE TROUGH AS IT DIGS INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS NEXT
ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY THAT DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY THEN SWINGS NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONCERNS COME IN RIGHT
OFF THE BAT IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST...WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS.
TRENDS IN THE NAM-NMM/GFS (AND RELATED SREF/GEFS ENSEMBLES) ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BUT THE NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE REMAINS SUPPRESSED
FARTHER SOUTH AND THE CONSENSUS IS LEANING TOWARD THE MORE SOUTHERN
TREND WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER (THOUGH REGIONAL
GEM HAS A FARTHER NORTH TRACK A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NAM/GFS). NOT
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST YET...AND UNFORTUNATELY FORECAST IS
SLIPPING INTO THE WINTER STORM WATCH TIME WINDOW. BUT STILL ANOTHER
FORECAST CYCLE AVAILABLE TO EVALUATE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM AND SEE IF GUIDANCE SOLUTION ENVELOPE NARROWS A BIT. WILL
BRING SNOW CHANCES UP TO ROUGHLY A FKS-PZQ LINE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
FROM MORE OF A PROBABILISTIC RATHER THAN DETERMINISTIC STANDPOINT
(I.E., ALLOWING FOR SOME POSSIBILITY THAT A FARTHER NORTH TREND WILL
VERIFY) WILL CARRY SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY WITH
A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT. ACCUMULATION FORECASTS WILL BE CONSERVATIVE
TO START...AGAIN THIS IS JUST A FIRST STAB AND NOT SET IN STONE AS A
A SMALL JOG NORTH IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER ACCUMULATION INTO NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PULLS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...IT WILL
DRAG SOME COLDER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A TRANSITION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS BELOW ZERO AND PLENTY OF
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING. SO A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE IN AREAS FAVORED BY 330-340 DEGREE FLOW DOWNWIND OF
LAKES SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH FLOW BACKING MORE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED FORECAST (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY WILL BE THE FIRST
ISSUE TO DEAL WITH IN THE EXTENDED...WITH HEIGHT RISES/SHORT WAVE
RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. PLAINS
STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO CRANK UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A PROJECTED
TRACK RIGHT ACROSS MICHIGAN WOULD BRING SOME PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO
THE FRAY...AS WELL AS IMPACT POTENTIAL QPF. WILL SPREAD WARM
ADVECTION SNOW INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN/SNOW (WINTRY MIX?) INTO MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY LAKE SNOW SHOWERS IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE/COLD AIR ON TUESDAY. WILL START NEW WEDNESDAY FORECAST OUT
DRY...SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF PLAINS
CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE IN SOME FASHION DURING MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012
LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER ALL OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN THRU THURSDAY EVENING AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THRU
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WINDS ARE WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
SFC LOW. WINDS IN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA AND WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY DROP AT THE ISSUANCE COMING UP. THE GRADIENT IS TO REMAIN
PRETTY SLACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SO THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...NS
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JL
#mainContainer
{
width:auto;
height:auto;
background-color:white;
}
#headerArea
{
margin50px;
border:1px solid #cccccc;
height:125px;
background-color: #ffffff;
}
#nwsLogo
{
float:left;
width:100px;
/*border:1px solid black;*/
}
#noaaLogo
{
float:right;
width:100px;
/*border:1px solid black;*/
}
#logoTitleArea
{
padding:15px;
height:110px;
/*border:1px solid black;*/
text-align:center;
}
#titleArea
{
display:inline;
display: -moz-inline-stack;
color: black;
font-family: Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;
font-size: 36px;
font-weight: bold;
/*border:1px solid black;*/
}
#mainContent
{
border-left:1px solid #cccccc;
border-right:1px solid #cccccc;
height:350px;
text-align:left;
padding:25px 65px 0px 60px;
font-family: Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;
font-size:14px;
}
#footerContainer
{
border-left:1px solid #cccccc;
border-right:1px solid #cccccc;
border-bottom:1px solid #cccccc;
border1px solid #cccccc;
margin:0px;
padding:0px 20px 0px 20px;
height:110px;
width:auto;
}
#policySection ul, #disclaimerSection ul, #addressSection ul
{
list-style-type:none;
}
#addressSection
{
float:left;
font-family: Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;
font-size:12px;
width:375px;
padding-right:100px;
}
#disclaimerSection
{
font-family: Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;
float:left;
font-size:12px;
width:150px;
padding-right:100px;
}
#policySection
{
font-family: Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;
float:left;
font-size:12px;
}
#linkContainerArea
{
border:1px solid #000078;
height:190px;
width:900px;
}
#linkArea1, #linkArea2
{
/*border:1px solid black;*/
height:170px;
margin:10px;
float:left;
width:auto;
text-align:left;
padding:5px 0px 0px 10px;
}
a:active, a:visited, a:link
{
color:blue;
}
a:hover
{
color:green;
}
#textLink
{
font-size:12px;
}
function goToSelectedPage(data)
{
window.open(data);
}
function getMyTime()
{
var myDate = new Date();
document.getElementById('myTime').innerHTML = myDate;
browserDetection();
}
function browserDetection()
{
if(/MSIE (\d+\.\d+);/.test(navigator.userAgent))
{
var version = new Number(RegExp.$1);
if(version
National Weather Service
The page you requested cannot be found. Please check your URL and try again.
Please use the following links for NWS forecasts and services.
Forecasts:
http://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php
*Please type
your zip code into the search box
Radar:
http://rad
ar.weather.gov
Air Quality:
http://airquality.weather.gov
Aviation:
http://
aviationweather.gov
River and Lake Forecasts and Observations:
http://water.weather.gov
Graphical Forecasts:
http://graphical.weather.gov
We apologize for any inconvenience that this might cause.
National Weather Service
Office of Operational Systems
Page Author: NWS Webmaster
Web Master's E-mail: w-nws.web
master@noaa.gov
Disclaim
er
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Pol
icy
About Us
Career Oppo
rtunities
Overcast
